Monday, February 19, 2018
7 teams are in the hunt for a spot, though I don't expect China has more than a 4% chance to make playoffs.
I have Korea at 18% to land at 8-1 and 94% to at worse have 3 losses, so we have to think the home team will be in the mix, because even falling to 5-4, there could still be a tie-breaker.
Japan estimates to 88% to be 3 losses or better. Their next game is Great Britain later today (or is it tomorrow?).
I've got Sweden at 92% to land at no worse than 3 losses. Note that none of these top 3 teams play each other the rest of the way. This could very well be a battle for 4th for everyone else.
Great Britain has Japan and then Canada, a big test for a team that has looked inconsistent (then again, who hasn't?). I have them at 16% to finish 6-3 and 48% chance of 4 losses.
USA, like Great Britain, has 2 tough match-ups with Korea and Sweden. I have them also at 16% with 3 losses and 48% chance of 4.
No match between USA and GBR so no guaranteed loss between the two.
Canada, like Korea, still has 3 games remaining. I have them at 34% to win out and 45% chance of finishing 2-1 to land at 5-4. Not what some Canada fans want to hear but with Great Britain looming and the potential odds of a loss to either OAR or China, that's how the math lands. The good news is, even if Canada has 4 losses, I expect the chance of both GBR and USA to also have 4 losses (or worse) at over 70%. So even if Homan drops to 5-4, a good portion of the time she's going to make a tie-breaker.
There's also a chance we could have a three way tie-breaker for fourth place with 3 teams at 4-5 (2.5%) or that Canada could land in fourth place outright at 5-4 (6%).
I actually have Canada getting into the play-offs clear of a tie breaker as 18%.
Also 7 teams (realistically) in the running for playoffs. USA sitting at 3-4 likely needs to win out, but actually has a good chance for the play-offs if they do. I've estimated USA lands at 5-4 20% of the time. USA does have a game against Great Britain, so a win there would drop Smith to 4 losses. Assuming Canada is no worse than 6-3, USA need Japan and Norway to both drop a game, which is very possible given their upcoming opponents (80%).
It appears Bet365 still has odds to win outright for Korea, Denmark and Italy. There must be a chance that 4-5 makes a tie-breaker, but you might want to stay away from those, unless they are for 2022.
Sweden is in the playoffs and I have the Swiss as only 6.5% to drop to 4 losses, and even then as mentioned, a tie-breaker is likely. I actually have odds of there being tie-breakers over 80%, but if GBR beats Norway today/tomorrow, it could come down to their final game against USA.
And 5 losses is still in play, but, having swapped coffee for tea this morning, I don't have the strength to calculate the odds.
Saturday, February 17, 2018
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Friday, January 26, 2018
Bob Cole is more than the iconic play-by-play announcer for Hockey Night in Canada. As a young broadcaster in St. John's, Newfoundland, Bob was introduced to curling and immediately became hooked. Despite his late start to the sport, regular practice led to early success with a trip to the Canadian Mixed in 1965, only the second time it was contested. Bob improved his game and eventually landed at skip, leading his team to the 1971 Brier in Quebec City. Afterwards, he recruited a youngster originally hailing from Nova Scotia named Jack MacDuff. He and Jack reached the Canadian Mixed but lost the provincial finals in 1973. They split before Bob returned to the 1975 Brier in Fredericton, NB. Jack returned with his own team to Regina the following year, shocking everyone with the first ever Brier victory for Newfoundland. Bob takes us through those Brier experiences and shares his love for the game. We discuss how great skips have the ability to control their nerves and Bob recalls a shot from decades ago that he'll never forget.
Saturday, January 13, 2018
In Part 2 of my conversation with Marilyn Bodogh, we'll dive into the 1996 Scotties playoffs against Connie Laliberte and Cheryl Bernard. She explains how to deal with trash talk from Dordi Nordby and warns of the dangers from Chinese food. Marilyn shares her thoughts on Colleen Jones, the Olympic Trials, both Battles of the Sexes and reveals what to wear under your kilt when you are on the ice.
Saturday, January 6, 2018
Marilyn Bodogh may have appeared brash, opinionated, outspoken or a little unfiltered. But behind the newsworthy quotes and smiles for the camera was a competitive drive to rival any of her contemporaries. Learning the game in St. Catherines, Marilyn and her older sister Christine had early junior success at the Canada Winter Games in 1971. In 1980 the sisters appeared in the Canadian Ladies Curling Association Championship (two years before Scott Paper took over sponsorship). Marilyn eventually moved to skipping and in 1986 she led Christine, Kathy McEdwards and Jan Augustyn to victory at the Scott Tournament of Hearts in London, Ontario. Gold would follow at the Worlds in Kelowna, but it would be another 10 years before Marilyn captured another Scotties, then teamed with Kim Gellard, Corie Beveridge and Jane Hooper Peroud. In Part 1 we'll cover the early years, the major victories, and teach listeners how to curl in kilts.