A Quick Calculation on Olympic Playoff Possibilities

I hesitate to write an article that will only be valid for the next 10-14 hours, but it's a quiet Family Day morning here and thought I'd work my brain for a few minutes.  I used odds from Bet365 and adjusted for my own assessment of these teams.  If you happen to be a Great Britain fan and like long-shots, the young Kyle Smith (born in 1992!) Rink is sitting at +1800 to win it all, or just over 5%.

Womens:



7 teams are in the hunt for a spot, though I don't expect China has more than a 4% chance to make playoffs.

I have Korea at 18% to land at 8-1 and 94% to at worse have 3 losses, so we have to think the home team will be in the mix, because even falling to 5-4, there could still be a tie-breaker.

Japan estimates to 88% to be 3 losses or better.  Their next game is Great Britain later today (or is it tomorrow?).

I've got Sweden at 92% to land at no worse than 3 losses.  Note that none of these top 3 teams play each other the rest of the way.  This could very well be a battle for 4th for everyone else.

Great Britain has Japan and then Canada, a big test for a team that has looked inconsistent (then again, who hasn't?).  I have them at 16% to finish 6-3 and 48% chance of 4 losses.

USA, like Great Britain, has 2 tough match-ups with Korea and Sweden.  I have them also at 16% with 3 losses and 48% chance of 4.

No match between USA and GBR so no guaranteed loss between the two.

Canada, like Korea, still has 3 games remaining.  I have them at 34% to win out and 45% chance of finishing 2-1 to land at 5-4.  Not what some Canada fans want to hear but with Great Britain looming and the potential odds of a loss to either OAR or China, that's how the math lands.  The good news is, even if Canada has 4 losses, I expect the chance of both GBR and USA to also have 4 losses (or worse) at over 70%.  So even if Homan drops to 5-4, a good portion of the time she's going to make a tie-breaker.

There's also a chance we could have a three way tie-breaker for fourth place with 3 teams at 4-5 (2.5%) or that Canada could land in fourth place outright at 5-4 (6%).

I actually have Canada getting into the play-offs clear of a tie breaker as 18%.



Mens:



Also 7 teams (realistically) in the running for playoffs.  USA sitting at 3-4 likely needs to win out, but actually has a good chance for the play-offs if they do.  I've estimated USA lands at 5-4 20% of the time.  USA does have a game against Great Britain, so a win there would drop Smith to 4 losses. Assuming Canada is no worse than 6-3, USA need Japan and Norway to both drop a game, which is very possible given their upcoming opponents (80%).

It appears Bet365 still has odds to win outright for Korea, Denmark and Italy.  There must be a chance that 4-5 makes a tie-breaker, but you might want to stay away from those, unless they are for 2022.

Sweden is in the playoffs and I have the Swiss as only 6.5% to drop to 4 losses, and even then as mentioned, a tie-breaker is likely.  I actually have odds of there being tie-breakers over 80%, but if GBR beats Norway today/tomorrow, it could come down to their final game against USA.

And 5 losses is still in play, but, having swapped coffee for tea this morning, I don't have the strength to calculate the odds.