Another Quick look at Olympic Playoff Projections

There are three draws to go in the Round Robin of the 2018 Olympic Curling competition, and I once again will try to get out a quick analysis of what might happen.  I’m using odds from Bet365 but always remember, past performance is not always indicative of future results.

Mens

Let’s tackle the men’s situation first as it’s (relatively?) simple.   

USA vs Great Britain is the game of the day.  Note that Bet365 has USA as +162 underdogs or 30% chance to win.  That might be worth a few shekels. 

A win by the USA will ensure them a tie-breaker and stretch the hope of an American Olympic curling champion to help further grow the sport south of the 49^th parallel.  A loss, combined with a loss by Japan, means no tie-breakers.  Based on Bet365, odds are that occurs is 18%, so odds of tiebreakers is still over 82% chance.  For the rules on tie-breakers, here’s the official web page which seems to indicate only one round of tie-breakers will be played https://www.olympic.org/pyeongchang-2018/results/en/curling/media-information-report-n1305-.htm

But then here’s more details from World Curling Federation…

http://www.worldcurling.org/owg2018/scenarios-men

 

This appears to be longer than necessary as a win or loss by Sweden vs Norway shouldn’t really make a difference, so there’s really only 8 scenarios to examine:

USA wins against GBR, Japan wins and Canada wins (20%)

4-way tie but USA and GBR are 2-1 against the other teams.  Expect that USA will be ranked 1 (having beaten GBR) and play either Japan or Swiss (whoever has worst cumulative draws to button or DCR or perhaps head or more likely head-to-head) and Great Britain will play the other team.  After the dust settles, the two winning teams will be ranked based on who beat who and the higher ranked team is placed in third (to play Canada) and the other in fourth (to play Sweden).  Make sense?

USA wins, Japan loses and Canada wins (7%)

USA gets third and Swiss and GBR (both beaten by USA) play a tiebreaker for fourth.

USA wins, Japan wins and Canada loses (2%) 

5-way tie of teams at 5-4 with USA getting ranked second, having the best record against the other teams (3-1, only loss to Japan).  The other four teams (JPN, CAN, GBR and SUI) are ranked as above (Swiss would be ranked 1, Canada 2) and they play Japan and Great Britain, and then the two winning teams are ranked 3^rd and 4^th.   

I think I’m getting the hang of this.

USA wins, Japan loses and Canada loses (less than 1%)

This brings in DCR scenario where, according to above it appears SUI is in the lead and would get third and Canada would play Great Britain for fourth, but perhaps subject to change after the last draw.

GBR wins, Japan wins and Canada wins (48%)

Canada gets second, Great Britain 3^rd and Japan and Swiss play a tie-breaker for fourth.

GBR wins, Japan loses and Canada wins (17%)

No tie breakers, CAN 2^nd, GBR 3^rd and SUI 4^th.

GBR wins, Japan wins and Canada loses (4%)

GBR gets 2^nd, SUI third and Canada plays Japan in a tie-breaker.

GBR wins, Japan loses and Canada loses (1.5%)

No tie-breaker, Canada lands fourth with GBR and SUI as above.

 

So CAN, SUI and GBR are in the mix no matter the outcome and USA could go from 2^nd to out of the competition. 

Womens

With two draws remaining, still some things to iron out in the women’s side of the event.  The WCF didn’t release a helpful guide, so I’ll have to do my best to sort this out.

If Canada wins out, it will include a win against GBR, so that brings tie-breakers into play.  Bet365 still has Canada to win Gold at +400, with odds to beat GBR as -227 or about 70%.  I expect they’ll be even higher favourites against OAR (say -1000), so the combined chance of them going 5-4 is 63%.  Considering they’ll likely be a favorite in the semi-final and at worst even in the finals, that makes a combined bet to win 4 in a row about 20% (which is +400).  Funny how math works sometimes.

If Canada beats GBR and China beats Sweden (+200 or 33.33% on Bet365) then it gets very interesting for the final draw, with a big final game between USA and Sweden that could put 5 teams at 5-4 (or 6 if Japan loses to the Swiss).   Guessing here, but with 6 teams tied for 3 spots, maybe they play three tiebreakers and the winning teams are then re-ranked 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th?  Fair?  Perhaps not.  Dramatic?  You bet.